The shutdown turned one of many three longest in U.S. historical past on Friday, with lawmakers indicating they consider it can drag on and few indicators rising of progress towards reopening the federal government.
That isn’t stopping questions on what might power lawmakers towards the negotiating desk to determine a decision, particularly with numerous potential strain factors entrance and heart for lawmakers within the coming weeks.
Listed below are some key dates to regulate within the coming weeks that might power motion.
Oct. 24: Subsequent paycheck for federal staff
Authorities staff — whether or not they’re furloughed or working by means of the shutdown — are set to overlook their first full paycheck on Oct. 24, elevating the strain on lawmakers to behave.
The federal staff additionally obtained solely a partial paycheck earlier this month, placing an in depth pressure on the greater than 2 million such staff and their households.
The difficulty is entrance of thoughts for some lawmakers, particularly in states that function a better proportion of federal staff than others.
“It’s a factor,” Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) mentioned.
He famous a 2019 regulation that ensures again pay, however acknowledged, “That is not the same as getting your paycheck on the day you’re entitled to it, obviously, and people have tuition to pay and rent and all of that.”
Moreover, a memo earlier this month from the White Home price range workplace argued that federal staff will not be entitled to again pay.
A carefully watched group of presidency staff is air visitors controllers, of which greater than 10,000 are working with out pay. A “sick-out” amongst air visitors controllers is broadly seen as a tipping level towards ending the longest shutdown in historical past in 2019, and absences amongst controllers this time round might trigger complications for air journey and the broader financial system.
One controller instructed NewsNation on Wednesday that they’re working as a supply driver to assist pay for his or her daughter’s tuition amid the deadlock.
Along with the ache authorities staff and their households will really feel, the consequences might trickle down into the encircling communities as they reduce on spending. That, in flip, might put a pressure on the grocery shops, espresso retailers, eating places and retail institutions that depend on their enterprise.
Lawmakers are taking steps to alleviate the strain.
Senate Majority Chief John Thune (R-S.D.) instructed reporters on Thursday that he’s planning to carry a vote on a invoice by Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) that might pay “excepted” staff, that means federal staff who should hold working regardless of the funding lapse.
However that invoice, even when it passes, wouldn’t assist furloughed staff. And it’s removed from sure that Democrats would enable it to advance, or that the Home would return to Washington to take it up.
Oct. 31: Subsequent navy paycheck
Trump administration officers sidestepped one landmine this week after they dug up $8 billion of unused analysis improvement funds from fiscal 12 months 2025 as a way to pay 1.3 million lively responsibility service members, making certain they didn’t miss their Oct. 15 paychecks.
Whether or not they’re capable of do it once more come Halloween is one other query.
Lawmakers are already eyeing that date as they solid doubt on whether or not an identical transfer by the administration is feasible.
“That option is not going to be available in two weeks for their next paycheck,” Home Armed Companies Committee Chairman Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) instructed reporters on Friday.
That is the place Congress might step in, regardless of deciding towards doing so forward of the Oct. 15 payday for the armed forces.
The invoice Thune is planning to maneuver on the ground within the coming days to pay “excepted” staff additionally applies to service members.
“I’m sure we’ll be looking at potential options. We’re going to give them a chance to pay the military next week.” Thune mentioned. “That will be the first opportunity and then we’ll see from there.”
Oct. 31 and Nov. 5: Congressional staffer paychecks
These are decrease on the totem pole within the eyes of lawmakers, however they nonetheless hit near house because the staffers they work carefully with every day are at the hours of darkness on when they’ll receives a commission once more — and a few won’t obtain a test for the foreseeable future.
Senate aides are the primary of the group to get hit as they’ll miss their first full paycheck on Monday, with lawmakers already lacking an opportunity to keep away from that.
Notably, staffers within the two chambers are paid out in a different way. The Senate’s are paid twice month-to-month — on the fifth and twentieth.
Home of Representatives aides are paid as soon as monthly, although, with that coming on the finish of each month. That implies that if Home staffers don’t receives a commission on the finish of October, they won’t obtain their subsequent test till after Thanksgiving.
The Home pay cycle has raised questions for fairly a while, however with the chamber out of session for a month, there’s little lawmakers can do about that. Home GOP management has additionally argued that they’ve carried out their job by passing the “clean” persevering with decision.
“Rent is due on the first,” one Home Democratic aide mentioned, pointing to the weird nature of the Home pay schedule. “Literally nobody else does this.”
Nov. 1: Reasonably priced Care Act open enrollment
That is maybe an important date of any listed right here.
Well being care is the driving power behind the whole shutdown, with Democrats intent to heap strain on Republicans to come back to the desk on enhanced ObamaCare subsidies earlier than open enrollment begins.
Republicans argue that the improved credit don’t expire till the top of the 12 months, however Democrats have made clear that they see the beginning of open enrollment, when Individuals utilizing the ObamaCare marketplaces will begin looking for 2026 protection, as the important thing date.
Absent congressional motion, their premiums are set to extend precipitously.
“The American people are facing one of the most devastating crises they have faced in terms of cost, and we still have not heard crickets out of any negotiation with [Speaker Mike Johnson] or with [Senate Majority Leader John Thune],” Senate Minority Chief Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) mentioned at a press occasion on Thursday. “The Republicans are on the defensive, they keep changing their stories and changing their arguments, but we are on the side of the American people.”
State exchanges and insurers are already sending notices out to enrollees explaining what’s coming down the road within the coming weeks and months. And state insurance coverage officers are already saying it’s too late to change the pricing earlier than Nov. 1.
Republicans consider that getting previous Nov. 1 can be key for them to get a deal as it can zap Democrats of a lot of their leverage.
Nonetheless, Democrats don’t share that view, saying strain will solely improve on the bulk get together the longer nothing will get carried out on the well being care entrance and as Individuals see how a lot they’ll pay for medical insurance.
“It’s still not possible to stop the full impact of the rate increases after Nov. 1,” Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) instructed Punchbowl Information final week. “If we don’t deal with this before Nov. 1, it becomes trickier to solve legislatively, but the heat gets turned way up by the public to do something.”
Nov. 21: Week of Thanksgiving
Thanksgiving is greater than a month away, however with no apparent off-ramps and early hypothesis that the shutdown might final a number of extra weeks, the thought of it going till late November is just not out of the query.
That brings into play what might be an ideal storm for Individuals: a scarcity of TSA staff and continued issues on the air-traffic management entrance throughout Thanksgiving week — one of many two greatest journey stretches of the 12 months.
That may be a nightmare for lawmakers on either side of the aisle, who nonetheless keep in mind the air-traffic management mayhem in early 2019 that pressured Trump and members to reopen the federal government and produce to an finish the 35-day shutdown, the longest in U.S. historical past.
These issues coupled with the prospect of Thanksgiving vacation journey and air-traffic controllers who would have gone with out pay for roughly a month could also be a bridge too far for members. Beneath this state of affairs, they might seemingly have till the Friday earlier than the vacation to discover a deal earlier than the extreme journey begins in earnest.
“[O]ne of the many consequences of the Schumer shutdown is that we are seeing, and will continue to see, even more delays for travel,” Senate Commerce Committee Chair Ted Cruz (R-Texas) instructed The Hill. “Thanksgiving week is the biggest travel time of the year. If the Democrats are irresponsible enough to be trying to force air-traffic controllers and TSA to work without paychecks through Thanksgiving, the traveling public would pay the price.”
“At some point, sanity will return to at least some small sliver of Democrats and the lights will be turned back on,” Cruz continued. “But damned if I know when.”
