President Trump is retaining Republicans guessing over whether or not he’ll endorse within the carefully watched Texas GOP Senate major between Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and state Legal professional Basic Ken Paxton.
Trump met with Senate Majority Chief John Thune (R-S.D.) and Senate Management Fund officers, each Cornyn allies, on Wednesday to debate the Senate map, together with the Texas major. Cornyn has been persistently trailing Paxton within the polls.
And on Thursday, the race was rocked by one other wildcard when Paxton’s spouse, state Sen. Angela Paxton (R) filed for divorce. The legal professional normal had confronted allegations of collaborating in an extramarital affair and corruption as part of his 2023 impeachment trial.
An endorsement from Trump has the potential to present Cornyn a much-needed enhance amongst GOP major voters, who for a number of cycles have tended to lean additional to the suitable.
“It will affect their perception of where Cornyn stands with President Trump and with the party,” mentioned Brendan Steinhauser, Cornyn’s former marketing campaign supervisor. “Everything is at the margins but I do think it matters.”
Cornyn marketing campaign senior adviser Matt Mackowiak referred to a Trump endorsement as “the most powerful endorsement in the modern history of the Republican party.”
“Senator Cornyn and President Trump are good friends and close allies and Senator Cornyn is proud to have voted with President Trump 99.2 percent of the time while he has been in office,” Mackowiak mentioned in a press release to The Hill.
“We respect that President [Trump] will take his time to make a decision and in the meantime we are focused on running a first rate, winning campaign, as Senator Cornyn always has,” he added.
Cornyn was entrance and middle with the president on Friday when he traveled with Trump to the state’s Hill Nation, which was ravaged by flooding final week.
Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) was additionally alongside for the journey. Hunt has had conversations with the White Home about doubtlessly leaping into the race and is seen as extra viable in a normal election than Paxton.
Cornyn’s allies this week additionally jumped on the information that Paxton’s spouse filed for divorce, citing “biblical grounds.”
“What Ken Paxton has put his family through is truly repulsive and disgusting,” mentioned Joanna Rodriguez, communications director on the Nationwide Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), which is backing Cornyn. “No one should have to endure what Angela Paxton has, and we pray for her as she chooses to stand up for herself and her family during this difficult time.”
In the meantime on Friday, Hunt posted an image of him, his spouse, and three babies with the caption “Family, Faith, Freedom. Good Morning America.”
Paxton, in a press release, mentioned that “After facing the pressures of countless political attacks and public scrutiny, Angela and I have decided to start a new chapter in our lives.”
“I could not be any more proud or grateful for the incredible family that God has blessed us with, and I remain committed to supporting our amazing children and grandchildren. I ask for your prayers and privacy at this time,” he added.
It’s unclear whether or not Paxton’s divorce may have any influence on the more and more dramatic major, however polls taken earlier than the information broke present he holds a commanding lead over Cornyn.
A ballot launched final month by Republican pollster Robert Blizzard on behalf of the Academic Freedom Institute, confirmed Paxton main Cornyn 50 p.c to twenty-eight p.c amongst GOP major voters. Cornyn’s marketing campaign dismissed that ballot, saying it was “silly season for polling and this one takes the gold medal.”
Nevertheless, one other ballot performed across the identical interval by Texas Southern College confirmed Paxton main Cornyn 43 p.c to 34 p.c, with 23 p.c saying they have been undecided.
An inside ballot launched in Could by the Senate Management Fund, which is supporting Cornyn, confirmed Paxton trailing Cornyn by 16 factors.
Whereas he at present trails within the polls, Cornyn might see a bonus in relation to the money race. The senator had not but launched his second quarter fundraising haul as of Friday, however he’s seen as one of the vital prolific fundraisers within the Senate.
He has raked in over $415 million throughout his time within the Senate and in 2024 alone he raised practically $33 million to assist Republicans win the bulk within the higher chamber. Final quarter, Cornyn raised $2.5 million, bringing his money readily available complete to $5.7 million. On high of that, the pro-Cornyn Texans for a Conservative Majority PAC mentioned earlier this month it raised $10.9 million this previous quarter.
Paxton’s second quarter haul exhibits he has fundraising chops as properly. On Friday, the legal professional normal’s marketing campaign mentioned he raised $2.9 million between April and June.
However insiders argue that Trump would seemingly give extra weight to polling than fundraising in any choice to endorse.
“If you’re going to move the president with anything on numbers, it’s going to be a poll,” mentioned the Republican strategist.
Cornyn’s supporters and Paxton’s Republican critics observe that the legal professional normal’s lead in major polling creates a conundrum for Republicans looking for to keep up their management of the Senate.
The identical Texas Southern College ballot confirmed Cornyn main Democratic Senate candidate and former Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) by 4 factors and Paxton main Allred by 2 factors.
A separate ballot launched by the Senate Management Fund confirmed the incumbent main Allred by 6 factors, whereas Hunt led the Texas lawmaker by 4 and Paxton trailed him by 1.
The priority is that Paxton’s potential weak point as a normal election candidate might pressure Republicans to spend more cash defending the seat, taking away sources from different battlegrounds.
“I think it would be more valuable the sooner it comes,” Steinhauser mentioned, referring to Trump’s endorsement. “Of course it helps with fundraising but more importantly, it helps with the couple of million Republican primary voters that are expected to vote in this thing.”
“They do tend to prefer the Trump candidate in these primaries,” he added.
Others are skeptical that an endorsement from Trump would have any main influence on Cornyn’s possibilities.
An inside ballot obtained by The Hill and performed by the agency Eyes Over confirmed Cornyn trailing Paxton 44 to 38 p.c after Republican major voters have been knowledgeable of a state of affairs during which Trump backed Cornyn, in comparison with 50 p.c to 33 p.c earlier than they have been instructed.
One other ballot obtained by The Hill, which was performed on behalf of the Conservative Coverage Venture, confirmed Cornyn solely gaining one level with Trump’s endorsement towards Paxton and trailing 46 to 34 p.c. The identical ballot confirmed Paxton trailing a generic Democratic candidate by three factors.
And the identical ballot performed by Blizzard laid out a state of affairs during which Trump endorsed Cornyn and Paxton attacked Cornyn for his previous statements about Trump and dealing with Democrats on gun security laws. In that state of affairs, Cornyn trailed Paxton 62 p.c to 21 p.c.
With out these assumptions, Paxton led Cornyn by 22 factors, in accordance with the findings.
“All the data points to him not being able to help a severely damaged John Cornyn get over the finish line,” the Republican strategist mentioned.
Nevertheless the strategist didn’t dismiss the facility of Trump’s endorsement, arguing that it’s most useful to candidates who aren’t already outlined.
“Cornyn is already defined,” the strategist mentioned. “The battle now for Cornyn is to try to show enough viability and credibility so the president doesn’t cut him loose.”
