Senate Majority Chief John Thune (R-S.D.) faces various divisions amongst Senate Republicans that might derail the Senate finances decision, a measure that might be essential to passing President Trump’s legislative agenda later this 12 months.
Key factors of competition embrace how one can calculate the price of extending Trump’s tax cuts, Medicaid cuts, protection spending and rising the debt ceiling.
Republican Senate leaders intend to undertake a controversial current-policy baseline that might allow them to assert that extending the 2017 tax cuts received’t add to the deficit and open the door to creating a signature Trump first-term accomplishment everlasting.
Sen. Invoice Cassidy (R-La.) says he’ll associate with the current-policy baseline, but when it is used he needs the price of extending the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which expires on the finish of this 12 months, “paid for” with both spending cuts or different revenue-generating measures.
“You can use it, I just want it paid for it,” he said of the current-policy baseline. “We’ve got an incredible problem with our national debt.”
However paying for an extension of the tax cuts with large spending cuts or different deficit-reducing methods would seem to defeat the aim of utilizing the current-policy baseline within the first place, which is to make it simpler for Republicans to completely prolong the expiring tax cuts with no need to incorporate offsets inside the invoice.
Requested whether or not his name to pay for the tax cuts was flying within the face of the Senate GOP technique, Cassidy replied: “No, we’re actually talking about different ways to pay for it. Much more aggressive.”
A second Republican senator who requested anonymity voiced robust issues concerning the plan to make use of the current-policy baseline to attain the price of a future finances reconciliation invoice.
Doing so would deal with an extension of the 2017 tax cuts as an extension of the established order that might not add to the deficit — no less than in response to the official value projections of the Congressional Funds Committee and Joint Committee on Taxation.
“At the moment, there’s a lot of concern about the issue of the parliamentarian and the score,” stated the GOP lawmaker. “I think it would be terrible mistake to overrule [the parliamentarian] and do the nuclear option.”
The finances decision, which Senate Republicans unveiled Wednesday, contains language giving Senate Funds Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) the authority to set the budgetary baseline for a future reconciliation invoice. Graham has stated he plans to make use of a current-policy baseline.
However Democrats are accusing Republicans of planning to interrupt Senate guidelines and precedents. They argue {that a} “current-law” baseline has at all times been used to attain the price of laws handed below finances reconciliation.
Below present regulation, a lot of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is because of expire on the finish of this 12 months. Extending these tax cuts for almost one other decade would add an estimated $4.6 trillion to the federal deficit, in response to a rating primarily based on a current-law baseline.
Thune met with a number of Republican senators who had issues about continuing with the finances decision on Thursday. These with qualms about components of the finances decision nonetheless voted to proceed to the invoice, which might be topic to dozen of modification votes earlier than it’s anticipated to obtain a remaining vote this weekend.
The dimensions of potential cuts to Medicaid is one other main level of friction inside the Senate GOP convention.
A number of Republican senators have said clearly that they received’t help large cuts to Medicaid, which give well being care and nursing to lots of of hundreds of their constituents.
Whereas they’re open to rooting out fraud within the system and including new work necessities to this system, they’re ruling out any cuts that might have an effect on advantages.
“I’m concerned about the instruction to the House Committee for $880 billion, it’s the Energy and Commerce Committee in the House, which has jurisdiction over Medicaid, because I don’t see how you can get to that amount without cutting Medicaid benefits,” Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) instructed reporters.
The Senate finances decision contains language drafted by Home Republicans instructing the Home Power and Commerce Committee to scale back the deficit by $880 billion, a goal that coverage specialists say can’t be met with out slicing deeply into Medicaid.
“In my state, there are more than 400,000 Mainers that rely on that health care program. Our rural hospitals depend upon it as well, and they are really struggling because of actions and inactions by the state legislature. So the last thing I want to do is cut Medicaid for vulnerable people who are disabled or seniors who cannot work,” she stated.
Sen. Jerry Moran (R-Kan.) warned that cuts to Medicaid would threaten the monetary viability of rural hospitals in Kansas.
“I want to make certain that my colleagues know my view the value of making certain we do no harm to those in desperate need of health care in Kansas and across the country,” Moran stated on the Senate flooring.
Whereas he acknowledged that Congress ought to reform flaws within the system, he argued that the advantages from this system are essential to the survival of rural hospitals.
“Our ability to maintain those hospitals and keep their doors open is a major priority for me,” he stated, noting that rural hospitals in Kansas obtain 9 p.c of their income from Medicaid.
Republican senators even have completely different concepts over how a lot the finances ought to name for rising protection spending.
The Senate Republican finances decision instructs the Senate Armed Companies Committee to extend protection spending by $150 billion.
That spending goal isn’t as excessive as what Senate Armed Companies Committee Chairman Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) referred to as for final month. He wished a protection spending enhance “north of 175” billion {dollars} within the reconciliation bundle.
Wicker instructed The Hill that he’s keen to associate with the $150 billion goal for the sake of compromise
“It’s not enough but it’s a big step. We have to make compromises,” he stated.
Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), a number one fiscal hawk, has pressed his Senate Republican colleagues to trim spending throughout the board, together with protection spending.
Home Republican leaders referred to as for a protection spending enhance of solely $100 billion within the Home-passed finances decision.
The Senate measure retains the Home-passed instruction to the Home Armed Companies Committee to extend protection spending by the decrease quantity, establishing a negotiation between the 2 chambers later this 12 months.
And Republicans senators disagree about how one can deal with the Senate finances decision’s proposal to lift the debt restrict by $5 trillion.
Paul has stated he won’t vote to lift the debt restrict by such a big quantity. He has as an alternative proposed elevating the debt restrict by solely $500 billion, which might put strain on Congress to right away enact large spending cuts to keep away from a default later this 12 months.
“We need Congress to uphold its promises to rein in spending. Call your congresspeople to say NO to $5T in new debt!” he posted on X, the social media website.
Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) has warned that he won’t vote to lift the debt restrict later this 12 months until he receives assurances from Republican leaders to assist the victims of radiation publicity in Missouri. He needs Congress to reauthorize and increase the Radiation Publicity Compensation Act, which expired final 12 months.
The Senate finances decision is written broadly sufficient to safe 51 Republican votes.
GOP senators voted 52-48 on Thursday to proceed to the measure. Paul was the one Republican to vote “no.”
However the problem for Thune over the subsequent 24 hours might be to maintain his convention unified sufficient to defeat amendments that might create new divisions with the Home.
If Republican senators vote with Democrats to cross an modification walling off Medicaid or different obligatory spending applications from vital cuts, it may arrange a critical battle with Home Republicans.
Thune instructed reporters at first of the week that his prime objective is to search out 51 votes to cross a finances decision and indicated that he’s not taking it with no consideration as a slam dunk.
He stated he wished to verify his Republican colleagues had been in a “comfortable place” earlier than shifting ahead with the finances.
“The Senate is going to do what we can get 51 votes for here in the Senate,” he instructed reporters final week. He stated that “hopefully” it could additionally get 218 votes within the Home.
He suggested that the Senate was going to work its personal will on the finances decision, which implies giving Republican senators an opportunity to form the laws, regardless of strain from Home GOP leaders for the Senate to easily adopted its model.
“At some point the House is going to need us. If we’re going to win, we got to play on both sides of the ball,” he stated.
