Democrats are making a play for Ohio in subsequent 12 months’s Senate race as former Sen. Sherrod Brown prepares an anticipated comeback try.
The Buckeye State was as soon as firmly purple, however has change into more and more crimson within the Trump period. President Trump received the state in 2024 with 55 % of the vote, and Brown misplaced his bid for reelection to Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio), profitable 46.5 % of the vote.
These totals present Brown was rather more fashionable with Ohio voters than former President Biden and former Vice President Harris, and Democrats suppose a lower-turnout midterm election might carry them to victory.
“When Trump is on the ballot, as Sherrod painfully found out, it’s hard to win because his turnout is high, and he ends up spiking turnout in red parts of the state,” stated David Pepper, a former state Democratic Celebration chair who led the occasion throughout Brown’s final profitable run in 2018.
However Pepper famous that Trump received’t be on the poll subsequent 12 months, and he stated a hidden pattern has been conservative-leaning counties not being fairly as solidly Republican in some elections extra just lately.
“If that continues to be a trend in ‘26, all of a sudden Ohio is a winnable state for good Democratic candidates,” he stated.
Nonetheless, Republicans say the state is more and more out of attain for any Democrat given the nationwide occasion’s picture.
“This is a place where [President] Trump’s endorsement still matters a lot,” stated Ohio Republican strategist Jordan Ohler. “Our side is as excited as they’ve ever been, maybe short of President Trump running himself.”
Whereas Ohio has misplaced its standing because the quintessential swing state representing the median of the nation, it was key within the 2024 Senate elections, as Brown’s loss to Moreno, together with losses by Democratic incumbents in Montana and Pennsylvania, helped flip the chamber to Republican management. The state stands to be simply as essential subsequent 12 months.
As Democrats attempt to chart a path again to the bulk in 2026, they should look previous the apparent battlegrounds to make up their 53-47 deficit. Maine and North Carolina are the highest pickup alternatives for the occasion, however they would wish two extra, and Brown’s probably candidacy makes Ohio prime on that record.
The state had a decades-long streak of voting for the profitable presidential candidate that resulted in 2020, however no Democrat has received statewide since Brown’s final reelection win in 2018.
Heading into the present cycle, Brown was an apparent alternative for Democrats, whose eyes have been on the longtime former senator for months to oppose Sen. Jon Husted (R). The previous GOP lieutenant governor was chosen by Gov. Mike DeWine (R) to fill Vice President Vance’s Senate seat.
Husted should run in a particular election subsequent 12 months to fill the rest of the time period earlier than the seat goes up for election once more in 2028.
Presuming Brown enters, he’s more likely to clear the sphere for the Democratic main and rapidly coalesce occasion assist round his comeback bid.
Democrats pointed to Brown’s slim defeat final 12 months as proof of his continued viability. In what occasion members agree was a brutal cycle for the occasion, Brown nonetheless got here inside a couple of factors of profitable.
The nation as a complete skilled a rightward shift, and whereas Trump improved his margin in Ohio in comparison with 2016 and 2020, the state’s shift was solely a pair factors. That’s a lot much less dramatic than many different states skilled.
Pepper argued that former President Obama’s two victories in Ohio within the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections made the state look simpler to win than it’s, however it’s all the time been troublesome for Democrats. He stated Trump’s identify being on the poll spiked turnout in conservative areas, because it did in different states final 12 months, the primary time that Brown and Trump ran on the similar time.
A minimum of for now, Republicans aren’t sounding alarms at Brown’s attainable candidacy, expressing confidence that they will nonetheless maintain onto the seat.
Tyson Shepard, Husted’s marketing campaign spokesperson, stated Brown can be beginning out within the “biggest hole of his political career” if he runs, as he hasn’t confronted a candidate like Husted earlier than.
“Brown’s slogans will ring hollow as his coalition walks away, tired of the radical policies he’s forced to support to appease his coastal bosses in California and New York,” Shepard stated in a press release.
Republicans beforehand have attacked Brown as voting overwhelmingly along with his occasion whereas he has touted his credentials as a champion for the working class and the state.
Senate Republicans’ marketing campaign arm launched a memo highlighting Husted’s strengths as a candidate following reviews Brown was working. The memo referred to as Husted a “proven conservative who reflects the Ohio of today.”
It famous that Husted hasn’t misplaced a statewide race earlier than and raised almost $3 million within the second quarter of 2025, arguing Brown will face a tougher job in opposition to Husted, who is best identified than Moreno was final 12 months.
The memo additionally pointed to a ballot from April that confirmed Husted main Brown by 3 factors in a hypothetical common election and by 6 factors amongst independents.
“Ohio has experienced an electoral transformation thanks to President Trump, as evidenced by Sherrod Brown’s failed reelection in 2024,” the memo states. “We will defeat him by an even wider margin the second time around with a proven winner in Senator Husted.”
Ohler stated Brown is Democrats’ most suitable choice, however turning to him over a brand new candidate reveals “desperation” and a scarcity of a bench to come back after him.
“They got to bring back this guy who thinks he’s the people’s champ, but like Mike Tyson learns you got to know when to hang up the gloves,” he stated.
Democrats have additionally expressed optimism about their prospects within the state’s gubernatorial race subsequent 12 months. DeWine, a preferred two-term governor, is term-limited, and Republicans seem set to show to former presidential candidate and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.
With Brown wanting on the Senate, former Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) indicated he’s extra severely wanting on the governor’s mansion.
“Sherrod Brown’s decision to run for the US Senate has renewed and heightened Tim Ryan’s interest in running for governor to further serve the people of Ohio,” stated Ryan spokesperson Dennis Willard.
One main Democrat is already within the race, and the occasion is hopeful that her recognition may very well be an asset if she is their gubernatorial nominee.
Amy Acton, who led Ohio’s well being division firstly of the COVID-19 pandemic, entered the race firstly of the 12 months. Polls have proven a plurality of voters approve of her time main the division, as she was a face of the state’s pandemic response.
Polling has additionally proven her forward of Ryan in a hypothetical main and about even with Ramaswamy in a hypothetical common election.
“Whether or not it is record-setting fundraising, standing room solely crowds at occasions, or quite a few polls exhibiting a toss-up race, it’s clear Ohio voters are fired up about Amy Acton and able to transfer on from company billionaires like Vivek Ramaswamy, who will proceed the identical failed insurance policies which have left so many Ohioans struggling,” stated Acton marketing campaign supervisor Philip Stein.
Pepper stated one energy of Brown and Acton working is that they have considerably totally different backgrounds and enchantment to totally different coalitions, enhancing Democrats’ probabilities general.
“They are complementary to one another, as opposed to redundant,” he stated in a Substack publish. “Together, their joint coalition spans far wider than what they each bring individually.”
