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Disputes on the proper that had been simmering on the backburner as Republicans rallied round President Trump throughout his first six months in workplace are poised to roar to a boil within the second half of the 12 months.
Now that Republicans have pushed by the “One Big, Beautiful Bill” of Trump’s tax reduce and spending priorities, there’s extra space to hash out different intra-party debates. Trump’s approval rankings appear to be reaching a summer time hunch, creating a gap for criticism. And the fissure over Jeffrey Epstein disclosures has uncovered a slip in Trump’s grip on the GOP.
Right here’s what I am watching:
1. Tariff hikes versus free commerce instincts
Republicans are bracing for Trump’s threatened tariff hikes on most international locations — which he had paused for a number of months — forward of one other crucial deadline on August 1.
Many Republicans have sat again and given Trump, who they often laud as a grasp negotiator, room to strike offers with buying and selling companions. However Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick mentioned on CBS Information’s “Face the Nation” over the weekend that the Aug. 1 deadline is agency.
Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) not too long ago instructed The Hill that the worldwide and American economies are in a “fragile spot right now” given the uncertainty over tariffs.
“We’re in uncharted territory. I do not know the impact the tariffs are going to have on the American economy or the global economy. I don’t, and nobody else does either,” Kennedy mentioned.
Republicans have already began to voice some issues concerning the looming tariffs amid a scarcity of worldwide offers.
As an illustration, two dozen Republicans led by Rep. Ron Estes (R-Kansas) despatched a letter to U.S. Commerce Consultant Jamieson Greer final month asking the U.S. to keep up its zero tariff coverage on civil plane, as Politico reported.
If the tariffs get extra actual with little when it comes to offers, quiet issues are more likely to develop a lot louder.
2. Posture towards Russia and Ukraine
The president’s persistence with Vladimir Putin is sporting visibly skinny because the Russian president resists any deal that might deliver an finish to his nation’s invasion of Ukraine — leading to Trump rising extra open to taking a harder stance towards Russia.
Trump warned on July 14 that if Russia didn’t comply with a deal inside 50 days, he would pursue “very severe tariffs” on Russia — and Republicans in help of a bipartisan Russia sanctions invoice have mentioned {that a} vote on the matter will come as quickly as Trump offers the inexperienced mild.
However there’s a notable contingent of Republicans who’re nonetheless skeptical of being concerned in any respect within the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) criticized Trump’s plan to hurry up weapons deliveries to NATO international locations that might then ship these arms to Ukraine in a New York Occasions interview final week.
“I said it on every rally stage: ‘No more money to Ukraine. We want peace,’” Greene mentioned.
And seventy-six Home Republicans voted in favor of an modification from Greene final week to bar funds of their annual protection appropriations invoice from getting used for help to Ukraine. Regardless that the modification failed and fewer than a majority of the Home GOP supported it, it’s nonetheless a large chunk that might complicate any Trump efforts to help Kyiv.
3. Authorities funding clashes
It took some main pushes from Trump to get congressional Republicans all on board together with his “One Big Beautiful Bill” due partially to issues from deficit hawks — and people disputes and dynamics are solely going to get extra difficult as Congress begins to handle common authorities funding forward of the Sept. 30 funding deadline.
Shutdown fears are already rising, my colleague Alex Bolton studies, since Republicans will want cooperation from Democrats within the Senate to maintain the federal government — which continues to be working at ranges first accepted underneath former President Biden — open.
It usually takes a extra reasonable deal on appropriations to clear the Senate’s 60-vote threshold. And this time, Democrats livid concerning the “One Big Beautiful Bill” and bundle that clawed again funds already allotted to public broadcasting and overseas help are eyeing taking a extra aggressive stance.
Additional complicating that’s authorities funding furor from deficit hawks on the GOP facet who have been disenchanted by the “One Big Beautiful Bill” not doing extra to chop spending.
However with little work carried out on common authorities funding payments forward of the August recess, a stopgap measure is wanting an increasing number of doubtless — a proposal that may infuriate deficit hawks.
Welcome to The Motion, a weekly publication wanting on the influences and debates on the proper in Washington. I’m Emily Brooks, Home management reporter at The Hill. Inform me what’s in your radar: [email protected]. Observe me on X: @emilybrooksnews.
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THE LEGACY OF ED FEULNER
Heritage Basis founder Edward Feulner died this weekend at 83 years outdated — forsaking a legacy of shaping influential establishments within the conservative motion as a lot as anybody from the Reagan period to the Trump period.
It wasn’t simply Heritage that had Feulner’s fingerprints. He performed a task in founding and was government director of the Republican Examine Committee, the most important conservative caucus within the Home. He was concerned in various different organizations that also thrive and form conservative politics and coverage in the present day.
Former Vice President Mike Pence wrote within the Wall Avenue Journal that Feulner inspired him to guide the Indiana Coverage Assessment Basis, as a part of an effort to help state-based conservative suppose tanks that might ultimately flip into the State Coverage Community.
Present Heritage Basis President Kevin Roberts and Board of Trustees Chairman Barb Van Andel-Gaby talked about Feulner’s movement-building strategy in a press release: “Whether he was bringing together the various corners of the conservative movement at meetings of the Philadelphia Society, or launching what is now the Heritage Strategy Forum, Ed championed a bold, ‘big-tent conservatism.’ He believed in addition, not subtraction. Unity, not uniformity.”
No doubt, Feulner was an enormous of the conservative motion — and one in every of its most vital builders.
“The younger Republicans in Washington might not understand it, however they’re spending down the mental capital stockpiled by Ed Feulner and his technology,” the Wall Avenue Journal Editorial Board wrote.
Associated: Conservatives mourn demise of Heritage Basis founder, by The Hill’s Miriam Waldvogel
WAVE OF FILE DROPS — BUT NOT THOSE ONES
May it’s that the conservative clamor to launch extra disclosures on convicted intercourse offender Jeffrey Epstein is dying down after releases from Director of Nationwide Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard on different, unrelated sagas which have outlined the MAGA starvation for retribution?
Gabbard’s ODNI on Friday printed a press launch saying there was “overwhelming evidence” that former President Obama and his officers “manufactured and politicized intelligence” to launch a “years-long coup towards President Trump” in relation to Trump’s suspected ties to Russia. (Extra in NPR.)
That coincided with a story shift from the kinds of MAGA influencers who had centered on anger over lack of Epstein disclosures for weeks. Now, they’re calling to arrest Obama administration officers — and even the previous president himself.
However that wasn’t all.
Legal professional Common Pam Bondi on Monday launched extra data on the investigation into former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s use of a personal electronic mail server to Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa).Grassley subsequently launched the “Clinton Annex” appendix to the Justice Division inspector normal report on the Clinton investigation.
“I appreciate their ongoing commitment to transparency and strongly urge them to continue to fully review this matter, including its national security impact,” Grassley mentioned in a press release.
And for good measure, in a coordinated effort throughout businesses, the Trump administration launched a tranche of information on the civil rights chief Martin Luther King Jr. — regardless of objections from his household.
Is it sufficient to calm the right-wing outrage about lack of transparency within the Epstein matter? Keep tuned — and possibly look to the Home flooring for any residual Epstein drama. Whereas Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has mentioned he has no plans to deliver a vote a on a non-binding decision in help of the Epstein information launch earlier than August recess, Home Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris (R-Md.) instructed my colleague Mychael Schnell of an Epstein vote: “It’s still a long way to go until recess… I think one’s gonna happen before August recess.”
ON MY CALENDAR
Wednesday, July 23: CPAC’s Middle for Combating Human Trafficking hosts an Worldwide Summit Towards Human Trafficking on Capitol Hill in Cannon Home Workplace Constructing, 9 a.m. to three p.m. Legal professional Common Pam Bondi is a confirmed speaker.
Wednesday, July 23: FDA Commissioner Marty Makary speaks for a lecture hosted by The Fund For American Research and the workplace of Sen. Rand Paul, 12:30 p.m., Hart Senate Workplace Constructing.
Thursday, July 24: Libertarianism vs. Conservatism intern debate, a practice with interns from the Cato Institute and Heritage Basis. 5:30 p.m., in particular person and stay streamed.
Monday, July 28: Unleash Prosperity hosts a dialog with Stephen Moore and Virginia Gov. Glenn Younkin (R) for an occasion launching a “Vote with your feet” web site monitoring motion of individuals and cash throughout the states. 5-7 p.m. on the Capitol Hill Membership.
THREE MORE THINGS
Ruthless, the GOP operative podcast hosted by Josh Holmes, Michael Duncan, John Ashbrook and the person most recognized by his web character “Comfortably Smug,” struck a enterprise and editorial licensing cope with Fox Information, Axios reported.
Do you know that Lara Trump, co-chair of the Republican Nationwide Committee and daughter-in-law of the president, has a musical streak? She launched a brand new music in the present day, The Telegraph’s Rob Crilly scooped, referred to as Eyes of God.
Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) opened our conversion on the Hill Nation final week summit with a zinger. I requested how post-congressional life was treating him. McCarthy mentioned, “Fabulous. We don’t have Matt Gaetz anymore.” The previous congressman and McCarthy antagonist responded on X: “This is so sad, Kevin. Get help. Move on. You don’t have to always be thinking about me.”
WHAT I’M READING
Semafor’s Max Tani: ‘Founders Films’ goals to remake Hollywood with patriotism, Palantir and Ayn Rand
New Yorker’s Rob Wolfe: How Dartmouth Turned The Ivy League’s Switzerland
Wall Avenue Journal’s Keach Hagey, Dana Mattioli, and Josh Dawsey: How Sam Altman Outfoxed Elon Musk to Turn out to be Trump’s AI Buddy
The Spectator’s Brandon Goldman: Trump places God again on the poll
